The stats say it all. After the "boost" from the republican convention, the candidates are running neck-and-neck at 42% each. Independents and undecideds are most likely to go for Obama or not vote. Also, the boost tends to fade for the candidate of the second convention. I expect that 2 weeks from now, Obama will gain some in the polls, it will be a steady gain, and I predict he'll win by a 5% margin, approximately.