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From today's NYT column:
...[A]t the end of July, Barack Obama was leading John McCain by three to four percentage points in national polls.... But lo and behold, a whole new plot twist had rolled off the bloviation assembly line in those intervening two weeks: Obama had lost the election!

... He’s been done in by that ad with Britney and Paris and by a new international crisis that allows McCain to again flex his Manchurian Candidate military cred. Let the neocons identify a new battleground for igniting World War III, whether Baghdad or Tehran or Moscow, and McCain gets with the program as if Angela Lansbury has just dealt him the Queen of Hearts.

Obama has also been defeated by racism (again). He can’t connect and “close the deal” with ordinary Americans too doltish to comprehend a multicultural biography that includes what Cokie Roberts of ABC News has damned as the “foreign, exotic place” of Hawaii. As The Economist sums up the received wisdom, “lunch-pail Ohio Democrats” find Obama’s ideas of change “airy-fairy” and are all asking, “Who on earth is this guy?”

It seems almost churlish to look at some actual facts....
There's also a pretty cool article on Jon Stewart and The Daily Show.

(no subject)

Date: 2008-08-17 01:11 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] adamselzer.livejournal.com
Obama's gonna take all the states Kerry did, plus Iowa and New Mexico.

He needs to win either Colorado, Indiana, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, or some surprise state like Georgia. Just one of those. McCain needs to win all of them.

I'm not particularly worried.

(no subject)

Date: 2008-08-17 02:37 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] the-s-guy.livejournal.com
The only way he could lose would be to go coast-to-coast live, singlehandedly unloading a truckful of babies with a pitchfork.

And even then it'd be a close call.

*I* am

Date: 2008-08-17 02:40 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] capplor.livejournal.com
never underestimate the power of human stupidity.

(no subject)

Date: 2008-08-17 05:05 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vixyish.livejournal.com
I'm terrified.

I try not to even think about it too much because I'm too frightened to hope. It hurts to hope this much.

Unthinkable, "but that can't happen here" things have been happening for years, and nobody in power even talks about them, let alone raises a finger to stop them. At last there's a chance for an end to some truly evil goings-on... but when I think about how unbelievable it is that we got to this point in the first place, it's hard to imagine ever getting out again.

Y'know how in the movie Jaws, the old sailor talks about being rescued from a shipwreck, and how the very worst part was when rescue had found them, but they were all floating in the water with the sharks still swimming around them, waiting for their turn to be lifted out?

It feels like that.

(no subject)

Date: 2008-08-17 08:19 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] lemmozine.livejournal.com
Working on Colorado.

(no subject)

Date: 2008-08-17 02:29 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] maiac.livejournal.com
The sun rises in the east, gravity makes objects fall downward, and the so-called news media think the purpose of the election is to confirm their choice for president.

(no subject)

Date: 2008-08-17 02:48 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] notnormal23224.livejournal.com
Funny thing is how so many folks try to say how Obama, lacks experience, isn't knowledgeable about world affairs, blah, blah, blah. I find that insulting considering he knows what's going on in the world, knows where nations are on the map, and knows what nations no longer exist. The last 2 are swipes at "Mr. Experience" who thought Iraq bordered Pakistan, and mentioned Czechoslovakia (note to folks with old globes, that country doesn't exist anymore, for quite a while too)three days in a row when queried about those regions. No one seems to play up the falterings of McCain, especially when it comes to his claimed strengths. I'd have more respect for Mr.McCain if he didn't resort to the same dishonest, shallow tactics that Bush used against him when he was running against him, and stuck solely to the facts, but now he just seems like another 2 faced liar to me.

(no subject)

Date: 2008-08-17 08:18 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] lemmozine.livejournal.com
McCain's pants are most certainly on fire. This wouldn't be the first time - he was almost killed in a fire in 1967. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_McCain One aspect of his military career that isn't talked about much is that he was flying a bombing mission when he was shot down and taken as a POW. Personally, speaking as a card carrying 1-0 conscientious objector, I'd prefer a president who hasn't killed anyone, so if we're talking experience, in McCain's case, less would be better. A few bloggers are challenging his POW record - for example http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/886465/does_john_mccains_military_record_really.html - but I'm surprised my fellow leftist peaceniks aren't getting on his case for randomly killing men, women and children, which is exactly what our planes did in Vietnam.

(no subject)

Date: 2008-08-17 10:12 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] filkertom.livejournal.com
Happy birthday, by the way! :)

(no subject)

Date: 2008-08-18 03:31 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] lemmozine.livejournal.com
Thanks. Coming from the most politically astute blogger in filkdom, that means a lot.

I really think Obama has a better than fair chance of winning the election, if the Republicans don't cheat again, and if he doesn't do anything really stupid, like responding to McCain's bait in kind. I think his responses to McCain's attack ads have been very positive, presenting his actual positions, and not giving in to the huge temptation to call McCain what he is, a lying sack of crap. Although, overall, I think McCain would be a better president than George Bush, so would PeeWee Herman.

Who do you think Obama might pick as a running mate? If I had to guess, I'd say Federico Pena is a good candidate, first because he's worked for and supported Obama despite service in the Clinton administration, and second because he captures a good portion of the demographic for Hilary supporters who have been wavering toward deserting the democrats.

(no subject)

Date: 2008-08-18 07:11 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] filkertom.livejournal.com
Not sure what being "politically astute" has to do with wishing a bud a happy birthday, but hey. :)

I know what you mean about the ads, and about the Repubs cheating. Ohio and Florida are still way up in the air, though. I, on the other hand, am astonished to realize that I'm not sure McCain would be better than Bush. I certainly would've thought he would be, if he were the McCain we thought we knew in 2000.

ObamaVeep -- well, we'll know who later today. Obama is going to let his e-mailing list know first. I'm kinda hoping for Clark myself. I'd really like someone actually progressive, and not a stupid Dem attempt to pander by picking a Lieberman-like Repub Lite. The Repubs won't vote Repub Lite. Why should they? They can vote for an actual Repub.

By the way, referring to your first post above:
... I'm surprised my fellow leftist peaceniks aren't getting on his case for randomly killing men, women and children, which is exactly what our planes did in Vietnam.
-- have you seen Vincent Bugliosi's new book, The Prosecution of George W. Bush for Murder? You can read about it, along with an interview with Bugliosi, here (http://www.smirkingchimp.com/author/russ_wellen).
Edited Date: 2008-08-18 07:12 am (UTC)

(no subject)

Date: 2008-08-18 05:31 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dan-ad-nauseam.livejournal.com
Actually, I'm concerned by the state-by-state trends, but electoral-vote.com has Obama currently likely to pick up Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico for a total of 275, with Virginia tied. That's down from over 300 before the tour.

We'll know more after the conventions. I'm waiting for the "McCain calls $5 million a year rich" ad.

(no subject)

Date: 2008-08-21 04:41 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dan-ad-nauseam.livejournal.com
Correction. That was Iowa, Indiana, and New Mexico. Unfortunately, he fell behind in Indiana today, which gives him a lead but not a majority. I hate to say it, but the negative ads are working again. It's time to hit back.

(no subject)

Date: 2008-08-23 11:07 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dan-ad-nauseam.livejournal.com
He is, however, now ahead in Nevada, which gives him 269.

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