Google Fu -- er, Flu

[filkertom]

This is so clever, I can't believe it. As David Pogue in the NY Times puts it:

One of Google’s geniuses figured out that whenever people get sick, they use Google to search for more information. By collating these searches, Google has created an early-warning system for flu outbreaks in your area, with color-coded graphs. Google says that Flu Trends has recognized outbreaks two weeks sooner than the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has.

Obviously, not perfect, but... damn, that's clever. Thanks to tristero at Hullabaloo for the heads-up.

Have you been sick this year? I tend to avoid the flu, but I've had stomach problems, a few allergies I didn't have a few years ago, and a little too much stress-related ick.

Comments

[allisona.livejournal.com]

My immune system has been the pits this year. I'm presently in the midst of the third cold/flu/sore throat I've had since Christmas :-/. I'm most frustrated by it all.

[ruisseau.livejournal.com]

My stress-related ick has been pretty strong this year, too. I'm taking too many classes, so the stress of that plus the seasonal "I hate winter" combined is particularly annoying.

[drzarron.livejournal.com]

I *knock on wood* rarely get sick. So far this season, I've only had a couple of boughts of sinus backups, but that's it.

Hey, Tom?

[dakiwiboid.livejournal.com]

Perhaps you should rephrase that for clarity. What people are searching for is more information on their symptoms, not just "more information".

Sigh. I seem to be anomalous. When I came down with a flu-like illness a few days ago, I stayed off-line for 48-hours. I considered all the symptoms I had, correlated them against everything I knew about the flu, came up short by one symptom (chills, no fever), and thought, "Wotthehell, Kiwi, you're sick anyway, girl. Just go back to sleep." I didn't need to validate it by Googling."

Re: Hey, Tom?

[filkertom.livejournal.com]

Not my wording. :)

Re: Hey, Tom?

[darthparadox.livejournal.com]

correlated them against everything I knew about the flu

Here's the anomaly. Most people don't know enough details about the flu to be able to reliably do this.

Oh, probably.

[dakiwiboid.livejournal.com]

In spite of the fact that those who still watch TV or listen to the radio news hear the lists of symptoms regularly, I'm sure they don't pay attention. They also appear in newspapers, and on big signs all over the hospitals where I see my doctors.

It's the same list every year, too. Flu symptoms (http://familydoctor.org/online/famdocen/home/common/infections/cold-flu/073.html) don't change all that much, though the strains do.

Re: Oh, probably.

[palenoue.livejournal.com]

One of the first symptoms I develop when I have the flu (or anything with a fever) is the inability to remember what the other symptoms are, so I need to double check to make sure.

[darthparadox.livejournal.com]

Had some sinus crap last weekend. At its worst, it felt like I was being stabbed in the eye. Luckily, with some medication it was gone by Tuesday... my immune system is generally pretty good.

[eleri.livejournal.com]

Have managed to avoid the 2-3 month death plagues that used to hit me pre-nose-surgery, but I got hit with a nasty sudden cold last weekend, and now it feels like I'm breathing through oatmeal. Bleh.

[shockwave77598.livejournal.com]

While I applaud the ingenuity and the good this can bring about, this data mining of what people are doing online is exactly the sort of EVIL that I don't want Google getting into. Today, they are telling the CDC about flu outbreaks. Tomorrow, they'll be telling insurance companies who drinks, smokes, or drives a sports car. The day after you will find them suggesting that your SO will really be upset about what you've been searching through, unless you pay the hush money they demand.

[technoshaman.livejournal.com]

*nods* I've *long* thought that about Google...

And the next day they'll just come for you and stuff you in a padded room, no explanation given. And then the robots take over, Copper Top...

[technoshaman.livejournal.com]

no sarcasm there, just a fear of a slippery slope.

[phillip2637.livejournal.com]

Somehow I just put that together with the existence of botnets and started imagining the fun that could be had. Sequence all the pwned computers in North America to do searches for "giant green mutant lemmings" in intervals that suggest about 120 mph movement east to west. I don't think the actual database poisoning part is illegal ... yet.

("If I had a million zombies")

[jrtom.livejournal.com]

I work for Google. I wouldn't expect that to work; we know about botnets, too. :)

[phillip2637.livejournal.com]

OK, so I need enough error and variability to make it believable. Some of them will be searching for "giant green mutant Paris Hiltons". :-)

[jrtom.livejournal.com]

Nah, anything with "Paris Hilton" in it is already automatically filtered out these days. (just kidding, of course :) )

[jrtom.livejournal.com]

Disclaimer: I work for Google as a software engineer. (Didn't work on this project, though.) I do not speak for Google as a corporation, however.

There is a world of difference between using _aggregated_ information about a very specific kind of search--in this case, for flu symptoms--to provide a public service, and _selling_ (or even giving away) information about _individuals_.

I'd also point out that building models of "what people are doing online" is what makes Google (and other search engines) work. Specifically, the original PageRank algorithm looked at how people were connecting their websites together (which is clearly a part of what people are doing online) and used this to improve the quality of search results by a huge margin over previous techniques.

Because of what I work on, I have access to Google's search logs that most Google employees don't have. When we apply for access, we are required to sign a document that explains exactly how we can and cannot use this information, and discusses the underlying principles involved. We know that this is an issue, and we take this responsibility seriously. And I promise you that if anyone at Google suggests that we use our data in a way that's not appropriate, they get slapped down hard.

I encourage you to hold Google and its employees responsible for things that it actually _does_, and I also encourage you to work for the passage of laws that give individuals more control over how their data may be used. But--again, speaking only for myself--I'd also ask you to consider why you expect Google in particular to misuse this kind of data. And frankly, I'm a bit insulted by your final suggestion.

[shockwave77598.livejournal.com]

I am sure that you are a proper individual. But just think - insurance companies and banks started out on the proper path once, also. And wow, all those little details about who I called on my cellphone, the phone company gave to the govt. with no search warrant or anything! So insulted or not (which was not my intent) you can understand why I am leery of letting any one company have access to everything I see and do on the computer. Today you may be on the straight and narrow. But it only takes one board member change to completely turn that around and decide that they are overlooking all these revenue streams.

[jrtom.livejournal.com]

Thanks for your courteous reply.

I can certainly understand why you're leery of letting any single entity (corporate or otherwise) have access to everything that you see and do on the computer. What I objected to is you laying this all on Google, specifically. There are, as you pointed out, lots of other companies out there that have already earned your distrust; we try hard not to. :)

On a related note: Google does a pretty good job, I think, of trying to make it easy for you to take your business elsewhere. Changing search engines is trivial; taking your email elsewhere is less so but definitely doable (I believe GMail provides tools to export your email). I think that part of the reason why we do this is to help keep ourselves honest: it means that we always have to think about what our users will want (and _not_ want).

Finally, it takes more than one board member change. It takes a number of employees deciding that they're willing to implement those changes...and it requires that none of those involved decide to quit and make a big media thing out of it. (Google employees have a high enough reputation for excellence that finding another job would probably in most cases not be a big deal, I'd guess.)

I do hope we see some federal laws that give individuals more control over how their collected data may be used, though.

[shockwave77598.livejournal.com]

Google was simply the company brought up initially. I likewise take offense to Yahoo's webbeacons, phone companies handing out "their" data however they please, and advertising cookies. But none of those were under discussion. Google's creative use of the tremendous data they possess was the topic. It was nothing specific about Google - I'm an equal rights curmudgeon :)

[alverant.livejournal.com]

I don't really get sick. Most of the time I just feel lousy and take it easy over the weekend. Last time I really got sick was the week before Xmas last year. And I mean sick as in "leaving work early and canceling events". Usually any "illness" is just food poisoning.

[peachtales.livejournal.com]

I remember hearing about this on the radio a few weeks ago.
As for illness, stress-related ick (as you put it nicely) has been extremely high for the past year or so.

[palenoue.livejournal.com]

My SAD (Seasonal Affective Disorder" has been getting progressively worse over the last ten years. A few years ago it was like being sucker-punched by the depression fairy, now it's like being tackled by an enraged linebacker. Fortunately Tom produces a lot of music and the FuMP is around to help take the edge off.

[bryanp.livejournal.com]

Now that is clever.

I don't usually get sick. About this time last year I was in the throes of consecutive exceptions. A respiratory infection followed shortly by ... I'll just say gastric issues and leave it at that. So far this winter nothing worse than a minor case of the sniffles.

As I've been exercising a bit more (walking the dog a couple of miles counts, right?) I've felt rather better. That and taking the stairs more at work.

[mneme]

Wow, that's clever.

Got knocked out by -something- for a couple of days last week; beyond that I've been good.

[the-s-guy.livejournal.com]

Huh. That's just crazy enough that it might work.

[kshandra]

I'm on day four of what I had thought was a return of last summer's sinusitis, but the PA at the acute care clinic believes is an actual migraine (and the x-rays would tend to back this up). This *would* happen the week I was planning to finally get off my well-upholstered ass and start really buckling down on the job hunt. :-P

[sdelmonte]

I keep waiting for that winter cold that saps me for two or three days and then lingers for another week. I don't miss it, but I would like to get it over with. The most I've have are day long sore throats and fits of weakness.

[philady.livejournal.com]

Wow, that is really fascinating. Thank you for sharing that link!

The numbers seem to be down quite a bit from previous years... I wonder if that is due to the increased numbers of unemployed. People who aren't out working aren't exposed to all the crap that goes around in offices. I know that's probably the sole reason why I haven't gotten sick yet this year. We'll see if that changes once I am finally back to work again next week.

It also probably helps that I've been much more of a hand sanitizer/hand washing nazi than I've been in the past. Having worked at a hospital probably has something to do with that. I consistently use hand sanitizer after using a pen to sign a receipt at a store or restaurant, and after touching doorknobs, handrails, ATMs, other peoples' hands, etc.

[shockwave77598.livejournal.com]

Alas, having kids in school could mean that I could be an unemployed quadraplegic trapped in a lazy boy who has to use the TV remote with my nose. And still I would be enrolled in the "Disease of the Month Club", courtesy of my school aged kids.

[philady.livejournal.com]

True dat. They have done research to back up that assetion:
Kids truly are little germ factories, study proves (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26611205/)

[jannyblue.livejournal.com]

Had 3 days of KastuCon crud last week.

Had a minor migraine (complete with aura!) yesterday for the first time in about 18 months.

Other than that, I'm not doing too bad so far.

[mythdude.livejournal.com]

I got sick last week and I'm still sick. My cough, which calmed down briefly, has exploded out of control today. :/

[maikujaku.livejournal.com]

The weather here can't make it's mind up to be hot or cold and I've been sick all winter long.