Russia Is Burning

[filkertom]

Tragic beyond belief:

Deaths in Moscow have doubled to an average of 700 people a day as the Russian capital is engulfed by poisonous smog from wildfires and a sweltering heat wave, a top health official said Monday.

Moscow health chief Andrei Seltsovky blamed weeks of unprecedented heat and suffocating smog for the rise in mortality compared to the same time last year, Russian news agencies reported. He said city morgues were nearly overflowing, filled with 1,300 bodies, close to their capacity.

Acrid smog blanketed Moscow for a six straight day Monday, with concentrations of carbon monoxide and other poisonous substances two to three times higher than what is considered safe. Those airborne pollutants reached a record over the weekend — exceeding the safe limit by nearly seven times.

About 550 separate blazes were burning nationwide Monday, mainly across western Russia, including about 40 around Moscow, according to the Emergencies Ministry. Forest and peat bog fires have been triggered by the most intense heat wave in 130 years of record keeping.

Alexander Frolov, head of Russia's weather service, said judging by historic documents, this heat wave could be the worst in up to 1,000 years.

As is usual on Yahoo, the comments are a mix of rational voices and nuckin futbars, but there is one I thought was particularly telling:

For all the people talking crap, you may not have noticed but there is only one atmosphere on this planet. Not only is deforestation a problem for the entire planet, do you this this smoke is going to stay in one place?

Comments

[tcgtrf.livejournal.com]

I'm surprised that you guys haven't heard about the drought in Russia. It's going to have a long-lasting effect on the world economy.

The wildfires are not their biggest problem. Their wheat crop died. Not quite all of it, but enough that Vlad Putin has forbidden sales to other countries. Winter wheat is used for miscellaneous foodstuffs, but spring wheat, the kind that failed, is the source for bread and pasta.

With the Russian grain excluded from the market, we're going to experience an inflation in all meat and cereal foodstuffs at the same time that we have a deflation in wages, bank interest on savings, and money received for sales.

That combination may be enough of a push to send the economy down over the shoulder of the "head-and-shoulders" graph.

Tom Trumpinski

[teddywolf.livejournal.com]

I don't know if it will be the final tipping point for the world economy. We heard that before with increasing crude oil prices, for example, and that stuff is pretty pervasive in our overall supply chain. We've had higher prices at the pump and the home-heating fuel-tank during a pretty nasty depression. But yes, it is going to be rough and I expect my weekly pasta bill to double.

Hmm, maybe I better invest in a lot of shelf-stable egg fettucini while I still can. If you haven't had it before it is some of the best dry pasta I have ever eaten.

(TomT, please give Kitten a [former] Lensman's best regards)

[tigertoy.livejournal.com]

WILL wastes a great deal of air time on the commodity markets, and even though I mostly ignore it, some of what they're saying sticks. My impression is that you're overestimating the damage to the wheat crop and also how much effect it will have on the economy. So far, it's nowhere near as much of a disruption as what we've seen in the last few years with the increased demand for corn for ethanol. Of course, if the weather in Asia stays terrible for a few years, and that gets combined with the emerging outbreak of wheat rust, it could become more extreme. It still won't make much difference in how much Americans pay for food; grain prices are a very small part of the total cost of what we eat. Globally, it will mean things are a lot worse for some poor countries and somewhat worse for all poor countries. The food aid programs that depend on that wheat are already scrambling. But it won't affect Wall Street or Main Street USA much.

It is one more straw on the camel's back. But it's only a straw.

[tcgtrf.livejournal.com]

Have to disagree with you and WILL, even though I send them money.

Grain futures have already risen 20% on the Chicago Board of Trade, the largest jump since the 1970s. The American grocery suppliers do something interesting when wheat prices rise--they don't raise prices, they make the size of their packaging smaller. The typical consumer won't even notice at first--they didn't a couple of years back when they did it.

The Russian situation is more serious and more extensive than many analysists realize because of their history and traditions--bread = stability.

Here's STRATFOR's take on the wheat:

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100809_drought_fire_and_grain_russia?utm_source=GWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=100810&utm_content=readmore&elq=fec9923a26b84d97a893a1caefad4379

Keep in mind what set off the bursting of the housing bubble--a sudden rise in gasoline prices in America causing American consumers to start holding on to their cash, rather than spending it full tilt. Our current economic situation seems to magnify the ripples caused by commodity spikes into tidal waves.

Tom